Muri 2023 kumanuka, amagambo yingenzi nko kwirukanwa, kugabanya ibicuruzwa, no guhomba byandikwa mu nganda zikora ibicu.
Muri 2024, yuzuye ibitekerezo, ni izihe mpinduka nshya, inzira nshya n'amahirwe mashya inganda za semiconductor zizagira?
1. Isoko riziyongera 20%
Vuba aha, ubushakashatsi buheruka gukorwa n’ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe amakuru (IDC) bwerekana ko amafaranga yinjira mu kirere ku isi mu 2023 yagabanutseho 12.0% umwaka ushize, agera kuri miliyari 526.5 z’amadolari y’Amerika, ariko arenze ayo ikigo cy’amadorari agera kuri miliyari 519 muri Nzeri.Biteganijwe ko uziyongera 20.2% umwaka ushize ukagera kuri miliyari 633 mu 2024, ugereranije n’uko byari byateganijwe mbere miliyari 626.
Nk’uko iki kigo kibiteganya, kugaragara ko kwiyongera kwa semiconductor bizagenda byiyongera uko ikosora rirambye ry’igihe kirekire mu byiciro bibiri binini by’isoko, PC na terefone, bigenda bishira, ndetse n’ibarura ryakozwe muriimodokan'inganda ziteganijwe gusubira mu rwego rusanzwe mu gice cya kabiri cya 2024 kuko amashanyarazi akomeje gutuma igice cya kabiri cyiyongera mu myaka icumi iri imbere.
Birakwiye ko tumenya ko ibice byisoko bifite icyerekezo cyiyongera cyangwa umuvuduko witerambere muri 2024 ni terefone zigendanwa, mudasobwa bwite, seriveri, imodoka, nisoko rya AI.
1.1 Terefone yubwenge
Nyuma yimyaka hafi itatu ihungabana, isoko rya terefone amaherezo ryatangiye kwiyongera guhera mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2023.
Dukurikije imibare y’ubushakashatsi bwa Counterpoint, nyuma y’amezi 27 yikurikiranya yagabanutse ku mwaka ku mwaka kugurisha telefoni ku isi, umubare wa mbere w’igurisha (ni ukuvuga kugurisha ibicuruzwa) mu Kwakira 2023 wiyongereyeho 5% umwaka ushize.
Canalys iteganya ko umwaka wose woherejwe na terefone zigera kuri miliyari 1,13 mu 2023, bikaba biteganijwe ko mu 2024. Biteganijwe ko uziyongera 4% ukagera kuri miliyari 1.17 2023-2027) ya 2,6%.
Sanyam Chaurasia, umusesenguzi mukuru muri Canalys, yagize ati: “Kwiyongera kwa terefone zigendanwa mu 2024 bizaterwa n’amasoko akivuka, aho telefoni zigendanwa zikomeza kuba igice cy’imikoranire, imyidagaduro n’umusaruro.”Chaurasia ivuga ko imwe muri telefoni zigendanwa eshatu zoherejwe mu 2024 zizaba ziva mu karere ka Aziya-Pasifika, zikaba ziva kuri imwe gusa muri eshanu muri 2017. Bitewe n’ubushake bwongeye kugaragara mu Buhinde, Aziya y’amajyepfo y’amajyepfo na Aziya yepfo, aka karere nako kazaba kamwe mu turere twihuta cyane. kuri 6 ku ijana.
Twabibutsa ko inganda za terefone zigezweho zikuze zikuze cyane, irushanwa ryimigabane rirakaze, kandi muri icyo gihe, guhanga ubumenyi n’ikoranabuhanga, kuzamura inganda, guhugura impano n’ibindi bikurura inganda za terefone zikoresha ubwenge kugira ngo zigaragaze imibereho yabyo agaciro.
1.2 Mudasobwa Yumuntu
Dukurikije ibipimo biheruka gukorwa na TrendForce Consulting, kohereza amakaye ku isi yose bizagera kuri miliyoni 167 mu 2023, bikagabanuka 10.2% umwaka ushize.Icyakora, uko igitutu cy’ibarura kigabanuka, biteganijwe ko isoko ry’isi yose rizagaruka ku isoko ryiza kandi risabwa mu 2024, kandi biteganijwe ko ibicuruzwa byoherejwe ku isoko ry’amakaye biteganijwe ko bizagera kuri miliyoni 172 mu 2024, buri mwaka bikiyongera 3.2%. .Iterambere nyamukuru ryiterambere rituruka kubisabwa byo gusimbuza isoko ryubucuruzi bwa terefone, no kwagura Chromebooks na mudasobwa zigendanwa za e-siporo.
TrendForce yavuze kandi uko iterambere rya PC PC ryifashe muri raporo.Ikigo cyizera ko kubera igiciro kinini cyo kuzamura porogaramu n'ibikoresho bijyanye na AI PC, iterambere ryambere rizibanda ku bakoresha ubucuruzi bwo mu rwego rwo hejuru ndetse n'abashinzwe gukora ibintu.Kugaragara kwa AI PCS ntabwo byanze bikunze bizamura ibyifuzo byubuguzi bwa PC, ibyinshi mubisanzwe bizahinduka mubikoresho bya AI PC hamwe nuburyo bwo gusimbuza ubucuruzi muri 2024.
Kuruhande rwabaguzi, igikoresho cya PC gishobora gutanga igicu cya AI kugirango gikemure ubuzima bwa buri munsi, imyidagaduro, niba nta porogaramu yica AI mugihe gito, shyira imbere imyumvire yo kuzamura uburambe bwa AI, bizagorana byihutishe kongera gukundwa kwabaguzi AI PC.Ariko, mugihe kirekire, nyuma yo gusaba uburyo bwibikoresho byinshi bitandukanye bya AI byatejwe imbere mugihe kizaza, kandi igipimo cyibiciro kikamanuka, igipimo cyinjira mubakoresha AI PCS kiracyateganijwe.
1.3 Seriveri na Data Centre
Ukurikije ibigereranyo bya Trendforce, seriveri za AI (harimo GPU,FPGA. hejuru ya 12%.
Hamwe na porogaramu nka chatbots hamwe nubwenge butanga umusaruro, abatanga ibisubizo byingenzi byigicu bongereye ishoramari mubwenge bwubuhanga, bigatuma ibyifuzo bya seriveri ya AI.
Kuva mu 2023 kugeza 2024, icyifuzo cya seriveri ya AI giterwa ahanini nishoramari rikora ryabatanga ibisubizo byigicu, hanyuma nyuma ya 2024, rikazagera no mubice byinshi byifashishwa aho ibigo bishora imari mubikorwa bya AI byumwuga no guteza imbere serivisi za software, bigatuma iterambere ryiyongera Impera ya seriveri ya seriveri ifite ibikoresho bike - na giciriritse-Gpus.Biteganijwe ko impuzandengo yiterambere ryumwaka wa seriveri yoherejwe na AI izarenga 20% kuva 2023 kugeza 2026.
1.4 Imodoka nshya
Hamwe nogukomeza gutera imbere muburyo bune bugezweho bugezweho, icyifuzo cya chip mu nganda z’imodoka kiriyongera.
Kuva kuri sisitemu yibanze yububasha kugeza sisitemu yo gufasha abashoferi bateye imbere (ADAS), tekinoroji idafite abashoferi hamwe na sisitemu yimyidagaduro yimodoka, hariho kwishingikiriza cyane kuri chip ya elegitoroniki.Dukurikije amakuru yatanzwe n’ishyirahamwe ry’abashinwa bakora inganda z’imodoka, umubare w’imodoka zisabwa ku binyabiziga gakondo ni 600-700, umubare w’imodoka zisabwa ku binyabiziga by’amashanyarazi uziyongera kugera kuri 1600 / ibinyabiziga, ndetse n’ibikenerwa kuri chip ibinyabiziga byubwenge buhanitse biteganijwe kwiyongera kugeza 3000 / ibinyabiziga.
Amakuru afatika yerekana ko mu 2022, ingano y’isoko ry’imodoka ku isi igera kuri miliyari 310.Ku isoko ry’Ubushinwa, aho ingufu nshya zikomeye cyane, igurishwa ry’imodoka mu Bushinwa ryageze kuri tiriyari 4.58, naho isoko ry’imodoka z’Ubushinwa ryageze kuri miliyari 121.9.Biteganijwe ko Ubushinwa bugurisha amamodoka yose agera kuri miliyoni 31 mu 2024, bikiyongeraho 3% ugereranije n’umwaka ushize, nk'uko CAAM ibitangaza.Muri byo, kugurisha imodoka zitwara abagenzi byari hafi miliyoni 26.8, byiyongereyeho 3,1%.Igurishwa ry’imodoka nshya zizagera kuri miliyoni 11.5, ziyongereyeho 20% umwaka ushize.
Byongeye kandi, igipimo cyubwenge bwinjira mumodoka nshya yingufu nacyo kiriyongera.Mubicuruzwa byibicuruzwa byo muri 2024, ubushobozi bwubwenge buzaba icyerekezo cyingenzi gishimangirwa nibicuruzwa byinshi bishya.
Ibi bivuze kandi ko ibisabwa kuri chip kumasoko yimodoka umwaka utaha biracyari byinshi.
2. Ikoranabuhanga mu nganda
2.1AI Chip
AI yabayeho muri 2023, kandi izakomeza kuba ijambo ryingenzi muri 2024.
Isoko rya chipi ikoreshwa mugukora ubwenge bwubuhanga (AI) imirimo yiyongera ku gipimo kirenga 20% kumwaka.Ubunini bw'isoko rya AI buzagera kuri miliyari 53.4 z'amadolari mu 2023, bwiyongere 20.9% mu 2022, kandi buziyongera 25,6% muri 2024 bugere kuri miliyari 67.1.Kugeza mu 2027, biteganijwe ko AI chip yinjiza izikuba inshuro zirenga ebyiri ingano y’isoko 2023, igera kuri miliyari 119.4.
Abasesenguzi ba Gartner berekana ko mu gihe kizaza cyoherezwa mu bikoresho bya AI byihariye bizasimbura ubwubatsi bwa chip bwiganje (discret Gpus) kugira ngo bwakire imirimo itandukanye ishingiye kuri AI, cyane cyane ishingiye ku ikoranabuhanga rya AI ribyara umusaruro.
2.2 2.5 / 3D Isoko ryo gupakira neza
Mu myaka yashize, hamwe nihindagurika ryibikorwa byo gukora chip, iterambere ryibikorwa bya "Moore's Law" ryadindije, bituma izamuka rikabije ryikiguzi cyo kuzamuka kwimikorere ya chip.Mugihe amategeko ya Moore yagabanutse, icyifuzo cyo kubara cyiyongereye.Hamwe niterambere ryihuse ryimirima igaragara nko kubara ibicu, amakuru manini, ubwenge bwubukorikori, hamwe no gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga, ibisabwa kugirango ubushobozi bwo kubara amashanyarazi bugenda bwiyongera.
Mubibazo byinshi hamwe ningendo, inganda za semiconductor zatangiye gushakisha inzira nshya yiterambere.Muri byo, gupakira byateye imbere byabaye inzira yingenzi, igira uruhare runini mugutezimbere chip, kugabanya intera ya chip, kwihutisha imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi hagati ya chip, no kunoza imikorere.
2.5D ubwayo ni igipimo kitabaho mu isi ifatika, kubera ko ubwinshi bwacyo burenze 2D, ariko ntibushobora kugera ku bucucike bwa 3D, bityo bwitwa 2.5D.Mu rwego rwo gupakira ibintu byateye imbere, 2.5D bivuga guhuza urwego rwagati, kuri ubu rukaba rugizwe ahanini nibikoresho bya silikoni, ukoresheje uburyo bwarwo bukuze hamwe n’ibiranga ubucucike bukabije.
Tekinoroji yo gupakira 3D na 2.5D itandukanye no guhuza kwinshi kwinshi binyuze murwego rwo hagati, 3D bivuze ko ntagice cyo hagati gisabwa, kandi chip ihuzwa neza binyuze muri TSV (hifashishijwe ikoranabuhanga rya silicon).
International Data Corporation IDC iteganya ko isoko ryo gupakira 2.5 / 3D biteganijwe ko rizagera ku gipimo cy’ubwiyongere bw’umwaka (CAGR) cya 22% kuva 2023 kugeza 2028, kikaba ari agace gahangayikishijwe cyane n’isoko ry’ibizamini bipfunyika igice cya kabiri.
2.3 HBM
Chip ya H100, H100 yambaye ubusa ifata umwanya wibanze, hari ibice bitatu bya HBM kuruhande, kandi ahantu hatandatu HBM yongeyeho ihwanye na H100 yambaye ubusa.Izi chipi esheshatu zisanzwe zo kwibuka nimwe mur "nyirabayazana" yo kubura H100.
HBM ifata igice cyuruhare rwo kwibuka muri GPU.Bitandukanye nububiko bwa DDR gakondo, HBM mubyukuri ibika ububiko bwa DRAM bwinshi muburyo buhagaritse, ntabwo byongera ubushobozi bwo kwibuka gusa, ahubwo binagenzura imikoreshereze yibikoresho byo kwibuka hamwe na chip ahantu neza, bikagabanya umwanya uri imbere muri paki.Mubyongeyeho, HBM igera kumurongo mwinshi hashingiwe kububiko gakondo bwa DDR mukwongera cyane umubare wamapine kugirango ugere kuri bisi yibuka ya 1024 bits ubugari kuri stack ya HBM.
Amahugurwa ya AI afite byinshi asabwa mugukurikirana amakuru yinjira no gutinda kwamakuru, bityo HBM nayo irakenewe cyane.
Muri 2020, ibisubizo bya ultra-bandwidth bigaragazwa nububiko buke bwagutse (HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, HBM3) byatangiye kugaragara buhoro buhoro.Nyuma yo kwinjira mu 2023, kwaguka kwabasazi kwisoko ryubwenge butanga umusaruro uhagarariwe na ChatGPT ryongereye icyifuzo cya seriveri ya AI byihuse, ariko kandi bituma habaho kwiyongera kugurisha ibicuruzwa byo mu rwego rwo hejuru nka HBM3.
Ubushakashatsi bwa Omdia bwerekana ko kuva 2023 kugeza 2027, umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’umwaka winjiza isoko rya HBM biteganijwe ko uziyongera ku kigero cya 52%, kandi biteganijwe ko umugabane w’amafaranga yinjira mu isoko rya DRAM uziyongera uva kuri 10% muri 2023 ugera kuri 20% muri 2027. Byongeye kandi, igiciro cya HBM3 nikubye inshuro eshanu kugeza kuri esheshatu za chip ya DRAM isanzwe.
2.4 Itumanaho rya Satelite
Kubakoresha bisanzwe, iyi mikorere irahitamo, ariko kubantu bakunda siporo ikabije, cyangwa bakora mubihe bibi nkubutayu, iri koranabuhanga rizaba ingirakamaro cyane, ndetse "rirokore ubuzima".Itumanaho rya satelite rirahinduka urugamba rukurikira rwibasiwe nabakora terefone zigendanwa.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama-02-2024